This project will apply concepts from modern robust control theory to develop algorithms for determining the optimal policy that both achieves sustainable levels of emissions of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) and minimises the impact on the economy, but also explicitly addresses the high levels of uncertainty associated with predictions of future emissions. The aim of the optimal policy is to adjust factors such as the mix of energy generation methods and policies for reducing emissions from housing, industry and transport, in order to achieve a rate of emissions that will allow the UK to achieve its emissions targets while maximising economic growth as measured by discounted GDP. A key difficulty in determining the optimal policy is handling the uncertainty associated with the effect that the policy changes will have on the rate at which is CO2 emitted. One of the main conclusions of the Stern Review is that policies for stabilisation of CO2 emissions have to be implemented immediately and it is not possible to delay decisions until models with less uncertainty become available. If this conclusion is accepted (and indeed even if it is not) model uncertainty has to be incorporated as an integral part of the design of these policies. Currently, economists are unable to find optimal policies in the presence of uncertainty and most existing economic models address model uncertainty by running repeated what if scenarios to predict the outcome for a range of parameter values. This project will use concepts from robust control theory to develop tools for incorporating uncertainty directly into the design of the optimal emissions policy; the tools can then be applied to other existing models. Including uncertainty within the design quantifies the risk associated with the emissions policy, which allows policy makers and emitters of CO2 to incorporate risk within their strategic plans. The tools will be implemented on the ECCO (Evolution of Capital Creation Options) model that describes the dynamic evolution of CO2 levels emitted by UK economy. Unlike many other economic models, this model is based on the physical principles of mass and energy balances, which are used to derive economic measures.

It is now an accepted fact that the disruption and economic losses arising as a result of extreme storms are increasing at a significant rate. There is also tentative evidence to suggest that these storms are increasing in frequency and magnitude due primarily to climate change effects, although it is acknowledged that such evidence is far from conclusive. Any increases in magnitude and frequency of extreme storms are likely to result in serious damage to the urban infrastructure, the world economy and society as a whole. In European terms, it has been suggested that by 2080, there will be an increase in wind-related insured losses from extreme European storms by at least....25-30bn Euro. However, it is perhaps worth noting that these estimates do not take into account society's increasing exposure to extreme storms, due to growing populations, wealthier populations and increasing assets at risk. Over the last few years there has been renewed interest in the effects of extreme wind events, since in a number of cases these events are the most important with respect to wind loading (i.e., the design of buildings/infrastructure). One particular set of extreme wind events which has received little attention in the past are those associated with thunderstorm downbursts. During a downburst a column of air moves vertically downwards and impinges on the ground. This causes the resultant air to be displaced radially outwards from the point of impingement, with a ring vortex travelling away from the stagnation point. The effect of this is to alter the velocity field significantly. In other words, the velocity field which was assumed when the building was designed may no longer occur, and a new, very different field may exist. The effect that this new wind field has on typical structures has yet to be addressed. Hence, there is a need to undertake a comprehensive examination of the structure of thunderstorm downbursts and to investigate the corresponding wind induced forces which can arise. The scarcity of full-scale data and the difficulty of predicting such events ensure that at present, modelling is a sensible way forward. Furthermore, the uncertainties associated with both physical and numerical modelling strongly suggest that a combined physical/numerically modelling programme supplemented by (limited) full-scale data is the best way forward. Without such an examination of the wind field associated with thunderstorm downbursts, the suitability of existing design methods remains an open question. This is of importance since in many parts of the world wind speeds of this origin constitute the design wind speeds. Even in areas where these events are not dominant, the continued investment and development in society and its related infrastructure ensures that society as a whole is more vulnerable to the effects of such an event irrespective of how frequently they current occur.

The Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) has appointed a group of 7 experts, of which 2 academics and a PhD. student eligible for funding from EPSRC, to conduct a reconnaissance mission to the regions of Chile struck by the Mw8.8 earthquake that occurred on the 27th February 2010, with epicentre 100 miles northwest from the City of Concepcion. The earthquake, the second strongest in the recorded history of Chile, was felt on land as far north as Santiago, where it caused severe damage and collapses, and Ica in Peru', and eastward as far as Sao Paolo, in Brazil. The shock also triggered a tsunami whose waves travelled westward past Hawaii, to Japan and New Zealand. The team will spend approximately 8 to 10 days in the region, surveying structural, infrastructural, geotechnical and seismological evidence and also comparing the Chile event with the recent earthquake in Haiti, which was considerably smaller (Mw7) but resulted in much more death and destruction. This earthquake has raised a number of specific issues which are discussed in greater depth in the following sections. The clearing operation is already underway and this has determined the very short notice with which this proposal is submitted with respect to the departing date. Post mission activities will include analysis of the collected data using high resolution imaging within the Virtual Disaster Viewer (VDV) and other tools specifically developed as part of the project. The findings will be disseminated to both researchers and professional engineers through seminars and publication on lines and in journals. This grant application seeks financial assistance for the three eligible members of the EEFIT group to participate in this mission.

Around one billion people across the globe live in shack settlements. Many of these settlements are at constant risk of lethal fires, due to the use of flammable construction materials and contents, open flame lighting, heating and cooking methods, the close proximity of the shacks, and the lack of effective fire services, amongst other factors. Our project focuses on this problem in South Africa (specifically the Cape Town area) where shack fires are an everyday occurrence leading to death and injuries, displacement, and damage to property, possessions, businesses, and communities. Improving fire safety is extremely difficult in a context where building regulations are largely irrelevant, where residents typically lack available or affordable electricity - forcing them to use candles, stoves or open fires for lighting, heating and cooking - and where socio-legal arrangements discourage the use of more permanent and less flammable construction materials, such as brick. Potential solutions to the problem of informal settlement fires (both in South Africa and elsewhere internationally) must not only be technically sound, but also need to take account of these broader social factors that shape the ways that residents build, maintain, and interact with their built environment. Our research is unique in its inter-disciplinary scope in that we seek to develop a systematic understanding of both the socio-political and technical factors involved in making informal settlements vulnerable to fire. By compiling existing data, undertaking multi-site surveys, carrying out comparative analysis, and conducting modelling experiments this project will develop grounded, effective solutions. Our research will assess the effectiveness and practical feasibility of 'technical fixes' like fire retardant paint, smoke alarms, and heat detectors, as well as developing guidelines that communities can use to re-structure their shack settlements to provide effective fire breaks. Being informed by technical best practice and the socio-political realities of life in shack settlements, our findings will enable residents to take action on fire safety and outline where the myriad of actors interested in such issues can most usefully contribute their time, insight, and resources.

The main activity of the network will be to run a series of workshops in which research projects will be defined and developed. There will be a series of eight workshops, designed as four pairs of workshops in which the research team comes together to develop a specific research proposal. Each proposal will be developed along the lines of the 'Sandpit' Ideas factory concept in the first workshop of a pair, followed by detailed generation of one or more proposals which are finalised in the second workshop of the pair. Each workshop would be supplemented with tele/videoconferences as necessary to facilitate detailed generation of the research proposals, including the inclusion of industrial and entrepreneurial inputs. Submission of the proposal to the appropriate funding body would normally take place shortly after the second workshop. Thus over the two years of the Network, a minimum of four strong research proposals would be developed to meet all of the research elements outlined above. The workshops will take place in Shanghai, Australia, Hong Kong and the UK, two in each location.The subject matter for each workshop will be worked out in detail by the network team under the leadership of the Lead Academics in each case. However, the broad topics of energy, water, transport and planning will be covered in each proposal, taking the two major overarching themes of behavioural change and systems thinking as the main drivers in each case. Each of the UK academics will be responsible for one workshop together with an appropriate Chinese academic and this will give a slightly different flavour to the four proposals, although the basic message of understanding behavioural change and holistic thinking will be achieved in all of them. Each workshop will be coordinated by the two lead academics, with the Network Administrator providing the administrative backup. Local arrangements will be made by the local network member with backup from the network administrator and lead academics.The workshops provide excellent opportunities for the collaborating partners to join with local people / including local industry, politicians/government officials, schools, universities etc / in learning, research and dissemination activities about sustainable development, the Dongtan project and other more specific issues being raised by the team. This provides an excellent opportunity for the team to engage with local people and to hear their concerns about the issues which are exercising the minds of the researchers in the team and thus to consider importing these into the subsequent proposals. The excitement of this is that because of the way the network will work, we have an opportunity to obtain a very multicultural and diverse view of attitudes to change through active local participation during the workshops in each city visited by the workshops. In this way we will be able to include in our considerations of behavioural attitudes to change, inputs from China, Hong Kong, Australia and the UK and thus into the conceptual models for change management that the future research will be developing.