The research will focus on two key areas: - Free movement of people within the European Union; currently the single most controversial aspect of the UK's membership . This will cover the economic, social and political impact of intra-EU migration on the UK; potential future impacts, if the UK remains within the EU, and if it does not, including new modelling of the long-term economic and fiscal impacts: migration policy options for the UK if it leaves the UK as EU; comparative analysis of the impact of free movement on other EU countries. - Addressing the key question of the economic impact of a possible UK exit, through the specification, elaboration and quantification of possible future economic scenarios for the UK, inside or outside the EU. This will make use where possible of NIESR's global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, and cover as far as possible the different economic aspects of EU membership (trade, regulation, capital mobility, free movement, budgetary spending, etc). In addition we will identify evidence gaps where further research could advance our understanding of these impacts I, and NIESR, are particularly well placed to undertake this work. - I have been active in immigration research for 15 years, and was responsible for the first major UK government study of the impacts of immigration (Portes, 2001), as well as the first analysis of the labour market impacts of EU migration (Portes and French, 2006); as a senior civil servant, I was closely involved in policy decisions relating to free movement in government; and I am now the most prominent academic commenting publicly on immigration issues, appearing frequently in both broadcast and print media. - NIESR is the only UK academic institution which possesses a fully specified structural econometric model of the global economy, incorporating country models of the UK and all significant EU economies; NiGEM has previously been used to estimate the transition costs and economic dynamics of UK exit (Pan and Young, 2004); it is used by the Bank of England, ECB, IMF, OECD and several other European central banks for simulation purposes. NiGEM is particularly well suited for the type of simulation analysis required for credible modelling of the potential impacts of EU exit across a number of dimensions. - NIESR has an excellent network of contacts among policymakers (HMT, OBR, BIS, BoE) and the business community (CBI, FSB, etc) who will both help inform the research and will be key audiences for the output. We also have links with comparable research institutions elsewhere in the EU and with policymakers in Brussels. - NIESR's record on the Future of Scotland fellowship shows our capacity to produce timely, objective, academically high quality research and to disseminate it widely to policymakers, media and the general public. Monique Ebell, Angus Armstrong's co-author for much of the Scotland work, will also work on this project. The outputs will be a combination of synthesis of existing work across a number of disciplines and new research, quantitative and qualitative. Building on NIESR's existing networks and strong track record, as well as my own personal media profile, we envisage a very active programme of dissemination through both traditional and innovative channels. NIESR is extremely well placed to undertake an active programme of dissemination of the outputs not just of this research but of the wider work of the ESRC programme. Given both our geographic location and our close contact with economic policymakers (we have excellent links with the Treasury, BIS, Bank of England, DWP, and OBR) we could serve as a hub for engaging policymakers with the programme. If funded, we would also look to undertake further work in cooperation with research partners elsewhere in the EU, and possibly in the US.

The need for new ideas in macroeconomics is evident. Most macroeconomists not only failed to recognise the weaknesses in the global economy before the financial crisis, their main macroeconomic model specifically excluded the possibility of financial vulnerability. Assumptions about human behaviour and how markets operate have undermined the effectiveness of macroeconomics as a guide for practical policy making. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is the UK's foremost macroeconomics research institute outside of the university sector. As our mission is to understand the economic forces that shape peoples' lives and to influence policy. We are free of political and commercial interests and the constraints that can inhibit university departments. Our network, Rethinking Macroeconomics, would be to start the transformation of macroeconomics back into a useful policy science. We have created a team of 25 world-class social scientists from economics, psychology, anthropology, sociology, neuroscience, economic history, political science, biology and physics all renowned for challenging mainstream ideas to spear-head this effort. Rethinking Macroeconomics will challenge the central assumptions and methods of modern macroeconomics and identify the building blocks for a new and genuinely relevant macroeconomics. Our network will create ran opportunity for scholars, policy makers and practitioners to coalesce around a substantive macroeconomic policy question and to explore, learn from and challenge each other's assumptions and ways of thinking and to consider possible new methods of investigation. The Rethinking Macroeconomics leadership team of will provide guidance by finding broad research agendas through a process of both guidance and discovery, through dialogue across the UK, that (a) directly address important macroeconomic policy issues, (b) facilitate research that would not be done otherwise, (c) bring new methodologies to bear in macroeconomics, and (d) that can attract enough scholars to launch and sustain an effective future research agenda. Our leadership team will commission several targeted proof-of-concept 'pilot projects' that are truly innovative, most promising and additional to existing macroeconomic research. The decisions will be taken in an open and transparent manner as befits public funds. A Steering Group will oversee the disbursements to ensure that the projects meet our requirements listed above. The RM network will offer value for money. Most Co-Investigators have signalled their willingness to work on a pro bono basis to maximise the amount of research money available for the best ideas. The allocation of funds will be made public through a transparent process. NIESR will ensure that the Network engages with the public through social and traditional media. We will use podcasts and an App to describe the 'pilot projects' and reconnect with the public through a series of televised or recorded lively debates on key macroeconomic issues that define our research agenda. The Network will also engage with other networks in the UK and overseas to ensure as wide as possible influence and to achieve synergies with existing ESRC investments. The team will ensure that the Network is sustainable by engaging with student groups and doctoral students and catalysing innovative and interdisciplinary ideas for policy relevant research. We will look to incorporate some the most promising ideas in school and college curriculums. At the end of the funding period, the leadership team will carry out a comprehensive review and deliver a roadmap for future macroeconomic research. This will include an analysis of the areas of greatest research potential, greatest policy relevance and the bottlenecks to be overcome to realise the full potential. Given the current exceptional economic circumstances, the Network has the opportunity to have a far-reaching and very positive impact on society.

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.

This proposed project seeks to use and develop NIESR's modelling capability to estimate the short term impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the UK economy, and to assess longer-term issues on how the economic recovery is affected by different policy measures. An aim of this project would be to use the experience of modelling the coronavirus pandemic to establish a dynamic sectoral model of the UK economy that can be used in the analysis of supply-side policy issues. The model will be disseminated through the National Institute's NiGEM software package, which is widely used by UK and international policy makers.

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.