The international scientific community is developing a greater understanding of the underpinning science and the associated impacts of climate change on Amazonia. However, the challenge is now to continue to develop the science while at the same time engaging with the national and international stakeholders, the key policymakers and the local communities. We recognise that this cannot be achieved in isolation and the key to success will be through international collaboration. Therefore, this programme will be delivered through close collaboration between the University of Exeter, the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Federal University of Minas Gerais and the UK Met Office. The PULSE-Brazil project consists of three inter-linked Work-packages (WPs): Work-package 1 (WP1) - will coordinate the exchange of scientists between the UK and Brazil, organise and run international conferences and stakeholder engagement activities, and manage the overall PULSE-Brazil project. The ultimate aim of this WP is to integrate the results and discussions between the cross-disciplinary research team and policy makers to propose strategies for mitigation and adaptation (Leader: Luiz Aragao) Work-package 2 (WP2) - will focus on building the climate, environmental and human-health datasets for assessing the Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil, based on state-of-the-art climate change projections from he regional Eta model and the MBSCG global model. The climate and environmental data will be delivered by INPE of Brazil, while the health data will be delivered by Federal University of Minas Gerais - both funded by a related proposal to FAPESP- FRPGCC (Leader : Jose Marengo). Work-package 3 (WP3) - will develop a 'user friendly' decision-support system (PULSE) that will allow both academic and non-academic users to visualise the impacts of Climate Change on ecosystems and human health the Brazilian region, using relevant outputs from pre-existing model projections. This will be subcontracted to the UK Met Office (Leader: Richard Betts).

Montane forests in the Andes and the South-eastern Brazilian Mountain Range host the highest plant biodiversity on Earth. Current rates of warming in the Andes are three times higher than elsewhere in S. America, and higher than average warming of 5-6oC is predicted by the end of this century. Hence, the (sub)tropical mountain ranges in Latin America form a high-priority area in which to study the response of tropical trees under future environmental change. Tropical forests also play a crucial role in the global carbon budget, accounting for more than half of terrestrial net primary production and storing around 40% of plant biomass. Uncertainty in the response of tropical forests to global warming is responsible for a large uncertainty in atmospheric CO2 concentrations under any given scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the current generation of Dynamic Global Vegetation and Earth System Models do not include a representation of montane forest functioning, which stems from a lack of empirical understanding, leading to a consideration of only lowland tropical forests in models. We intend to address this knowledge gap by initiating a Latin America-wide network of tropical montane forest sites to gather existing understanding in order to model the contribution of these forests to the regional and global carbon and water cycles, under current and future climate change. This will be achieved via a dedicated workshop at the Uni-Campinas, Brazil, hosted by PP-FAPESP Nagy, with the participation of empirical experts across the network together with DGVM and ESM modellers.

Tropical forests store more than a half of the world's forest carbon and produce over one third of the productivity of all terrestrial systems. They are also biodiversity hotspots, and host a large proportion of the world's terrestrial flora and fauna. However, growing evidence shows that the ability of tropical forests to perform important ecosystem services (i.e. carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation) has been dramatically reduced by multiple pressures associated with human-induced forest disturbances (e.g. agriculture, logging, fire and fragmentation) and extreme climate events. Of these disturbances, fire represents of the greatest threats. Rainforests have not co-evolved with fire, and species have not adapted to withstand fire or the changes it imposes on the forests. Yet today, ignition sources are common in most human-modified regions, as many local farmers living within tropical forests traditionally use fire as a management technique to prepare their land for planting. This is compounded by selective logging and fragmentation, which increase the flammability of the remaining forests. Critically, fires are much more likely to escape their target area and enter the surrounding forests during severe drought events. This is exactly what happened during the current 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - considered one of the three strongest events ever recorded. The prolonged dry season allowed thousands of fires to get out of control in Amazonian and SE Asian tropical rainforests. Specifically in the Brazilian Amazon, the end of 2015 was marked by over 87,000 fire events, a 48% increase in relation to 2014 (a non-ENSO year). As a result, the widespread wildfires affected half of our 20 permanent plots near the Santarém region in the state of Pará, while fortunately preserving the other ten plots unburned. The Sustainable Amazon Network (SAN) has established these plots along a gradient of forest modification in 2010, and since 2014 a joint project between UK and Brazilian scientists (ECOFOR) has been carrying out research in this region. Consequently, the work we are proposing here benefits from unique and detailed pre-fire information on carbon dynamics and plant functional traits (from ECOFOR) as well as the distribution of three distinct taxa (birds, dung beetles and plants) and secondary seed dispersal processes (from SAN). Uniquely our network of permanent plots is established along an existing gradient of forest modification before the 2015 fires, allowing us to undertake the first rigorous evaluation of fire effects across different forest disturbance classes. This ability to examine fire impacts using detailed pre-fire data allows us to develop three major avenues of research across a human-modified gradient of forest disturbances: (1) the impacts of very severe wildfires on plant communities and carbon dynamics, assessing therefore which plant functional traits may predict species mortality, survival and recruitment; (2) an investigation into the fire impacts on forest fauna (i.e. birds and dung beetles) and associated seed dispersal processes; and (3) the development of a detailed understanding of scale and impacts of the current extreme ENSO-event, exploring the relationship between remote sensing information and ground-based measures. The better linkages between remote-sensing products and actual measures of fire severity will allow us to scale up the carbon emission and biodiversity loss estimates across the whole region. The results fo AFIRE are critically important, as tropical forests around the world may be threatened by drier, hotter and longer dry seasons with climate change. Our findings will help inform mitigation strategies to manage the impacts of future ENSO-mediated droughts and severe wildfires on tropical forests. We also expect AFIRE plots to form the basis of much longer-term research on the impacts of tropical wildfire

Latin American forests cover a very large latitudinal and climate gradient extending from the tropics to Southern hemisphere high latitudes. The continent therefore hosts a large variety of forest types including the Amazon - the world's largest tropical forest - as well as the diverse Atlantic forests concentrated along the coast, temperate forests in Chile and Argentina as well as the cold rainforests of Valdivia and the Nothofagus forests of Patagonia. These forests are global epicentres of biological diversity and include several tropical and extra-tropical biodiversity hotspots. For example, the Amazon rainforest is home to ~10% of terrestrial plant and animal species and store a large fraction of global organic carbon. hotspots. Some of these Latin American forests still cover a large fraction of their original (pre-colombian) extent: the Amazon still covers approximately 5 Million km2, which is 80% of its original area. However, others, such as the Atlantic forest, have nearly disappeared and are now heavily fragmented. Temperate forests have also shrunk, despite efforts to halt further reduction. However, economic development, population rises and the growth in global drivers of environmental change mean that all forests now face strong anthropogenic pressures. Locally stressors generally result from ongoing development, selective logging, the hunting of larger birds and mammals, over-exploitation of key forest resources such as valuable palm fruits, mining, and/or forest conversion for agricultural use. Global environmental drivers stem from the world's warming climate. Yet it is not clear how these local pressures and changing environmental conditions will alter the composition of Latin American forests, and whether there are thresholds between human impacts - such as the lack of dispersers in heavily fragmented forest landscapes or climate conditions exceeding limits of species tolerance - and the community level responses of forest plants. We aim to investigate this, supporting the development of strategies that can preserve the diversity of these forests and their functioning. We achieve this by investigating the relationships between diversity and functioning of these forests; exploring whether there are thresholds in functioning resulting both from pressures of forest use and changing climate; by experimentally testing responses; and by generalizing predictive capability to large scales. ARBOLES aims to achieve these goals by integrating established forest inventory approaches with cutting-edge functional trait, genomics, experimental and remote sensing approaches. Our approach involves combining forest plots with plant traits, which will enable us to characterize state and shifts over time in the face of local human disturbance and changing climate and atmospheric composition. We will focus on traits along the following axes: (i) life-history strategies measuring investment in structure (like wood density, leaf mass per area, maximum height), (ii) investment in productive organs (like leaf nutrients), (iii) investment in reproductive organs, (iv) tolerance to water stress and heat stress. The work is being conducted in collaboration with research groups in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru - and will provide a first cross-continent assessment of how humans are influencing Latin American forests.